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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

However this year's race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still