A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
